Genre: Card & Casino. Beat the dealer! Make your bet, and you're dealt two cards. If you think you can get closer to 21 without going over, have the dealer give you another. Do you feel lucky? Click chips from your bank to move them onto the table and make your. Consequently, the percentages are slightly better hitting a hard 12 against a dealer’s 2 than standing. MATH OF HITTING 12 AGAINST DEALER’S 2. Let’s suppose you are playing a six-deck game with the dealer standing on soft 17 and you are dealt a two-card 12 and the dealer’s upcard is a 2. The percentage of the hands that you stand to win.
by Henry Tamburin
One of the more frustrating hands in blackjack is being dealt a 12 when the dealer shows a 2 upcard. You hate to hit your 12 because you are afraid the dealer is going to give you a picture card and you’ll bust. There’s a lot of misconception on what’s the correct way to play this hand and I aim to sort it all out so it will no longer be a “dilemma” for you.
First off, let’s look at some facts about this hand.
- Many players don’t hit 12 because they believe the dealer has a ten in the hole and, therefore, they won’t risk busting when the dealer has a weak upcard. However, when you hold a 12, only four cards will bust you ... any 10, Jack, Queen, and King, meaning you have a 65% chance of surviving a hit. Five cards ... any 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 ... will give you a 17 through 21 hand.
- With a 2 upcard, the dealer has a 35% chance of busting and 65% chance of making a 17 though 21.
- If you stand, you’ll win 35% of the time and lose 65% of the time.
- If you hit, you’ll win 37% of the time and lose 63% of the time.
So what does all of the above mean? First, when the dealer has a 2 upcard, she’s not as venerable to busting as she would with, say, a 4, 5, or 6 upcard. Secondly, your chance of busting isn’t as great as you think. Therefore, it appears that hitting the 12 would be the better play than standing and this is corroborated by facts # 3 and #4. Let’s look at this in a little more detail.
Fact # 3 says you will win 35% of the time standing on 12 against a dealer 2 and lose 65% of the time. This means if you bet a dollar a hand, you would be down $30 after 100 hands on average. That certainly isn’t a good outcome but that’s a fact: standing on 12 when the dealer shows a 2 is not a profitable play and you will lose more money than you win in the long run. However, let’s look at the second option, namely hitting 12. Fact #4 says you will win 2% more times compared to standing. In dollars and cents, this means you will lose $26 after 100 hands on average. That’s also a loser but here’s the question you must ask yourself: is it better to lose $26 or $30? I hope that I’ve convinced you that even though hitting 12 against a 2 is a loser, you will lose less money in the long run compared to standing. In other word, this is classic hand where the best playing option allows you to minimize your losses.
What if your 12 consists of a pair of 6s? Now you’ve got another option and that’s to split the 6s and play two hands against the dealer’s 2 upcard. It turns out that when you split and play a 6 against a dealer 2, you will win roughly 43% of the time. In other words, you’ve increased your chances of winning when you split the 6’s against a dealer 2 compared to hitting. To say it differently, starting with a 6 is a whole lot better than starting with a 12 when you are facing a dealer’s 2 upcard. Therefore, the correct strategy is to always split a pair of 6s against a dealer 2 upcard (with one exception: if you’re playing a four-, six-, or eight-deck game where you can’t double down after pair splitting, you should hit 6’s against a 2).
You could also be dealt a soft 12, which happens to be Ace-Ace. This hand should be a no brainer. You should always split a pair of aces regardless of what the dealer’s upcard is.
Is there ever a situation when you wouldn’t hit a non-pair 12 hand against a dealer’s 2? Actually two cases come to mind. The first is when the remaining cards contain an abundance of high-value vs. small-value cards (thus increasing your chance of busting if you hit 12). In fact, card counters will sometimes stand on 12 whenever their count gets moderately positive (indicating more high cards than small cards remain in the unplayed deck of cards). So, the next time you see a fellow player standing on 12 against a dealer 2, think twice about calling him a nerd because he might just be a skilled card counter making the correct play.
The second situation which justifies deviating from hitting 12 against a dealer 2 comes about in tournament play. If the tournament rules specify that the double-down card is dealt face down, instead of hitting your 12 you could double down for just one chip (i.e., doubling for less). This move, although it involves some risk of busting, allows you to disguise the outcome of your hand from your opponents who must play their hands after you. This is a powerful strategy especially when it’s used on the last few hands of a closely contested tournament.
So now you know how to play a 12 against a dealer’s 2 under all types of situations; therefore, this hand should no longer be a dilemma for you, right?
Splittingaces and eights is part of blackjackbasic strategy. Rules vary across gambling establishments regarding resplitting, doubling, multiple card draws, and the payout for blackjack, and there are conditional strategic responses that depend upon the number of decks used, the frequency of shuffling and dealer's cards. However, regardless of the various situations, the common strategic wisdom in the blackjack community is to 'Always split aces and eights' when dealt either pair as initial cards.[1] This is generally the first rule of any splitting strategy.[2]
- 1Splitting
Splitting[edit]
The object of blackjack is for a player to defeat the dealer by obtaining a total as close to 21 as possible without accumulating a total that exceeds this number.[3] In blackjack, the standard rule is that if the player is dealt a pair of identically ranked initial cards, known as a pair, the player is allowed to split them into separate hands and ask for a new second card for each while placing a full initial bet identical to the original wager with each. After placing the wager for the split hands the dealer gives the player an additional card for each split card. The two hands created by splitting are considered independently in competition against the dealer.[4][5] Splitting allows the gambler to turn a bad hand into one or two hands with a good possibility of winning. It also allows the player to double the bet when the dealer busts.[2] Some rules even allow for resplitting until the player has as many as four hands[4] or allow doubling the bet after a split so that each hand has a bet double the original.[6][7] The standard rules are that when a bet is doubled on a hand, the player is only allowed to draw one more card for that hand.[8][9]
Aces[edit]
A pair of aces gives the blackjack player a starting hand value of either a 2 or a soft 12 which is a problematic starting hand in either case.[2][10] Splitting aces gives a player two chances to hit 21.[11] Splitting aces is so favorable to the player that most gambling establishments have rules limiting the player's rights to do so.[2][10] In most casinos the player is only allowed to draw one card on each split ace.[8][10] As a general rule, a ten on a split ace (or vice versa) is not considered a natural blackjack and does not get any bonus.[6] Prohibiting resplitting and redoubling is also common.[2] Regardless of the payout for blackjack, the rules for resplitting, the rules for doubling, the rules for multiple card draws and the dealer's cards, one should always split aces.[10][12][13]
Eights[edit]
If a player is dealt a pair of eights, the total of 16 is considered a troublesome hand. In fact, the value 16 is said to be the worst hand one can have in blackjack.[10] Since sixteen of the other fifty cards have a value of 10 and four have a value of 11, there is a strong chance of getting at least an 18 with either or both split cards. A hand totaling 18 or 19 is much stronger than having a 16.[6] Splitting eights limits one's losses and improves one's hand.[10][11][12] Probabilistic research of expected value scenarios shows that by splitting eights one can convert a hand that presents an expected loss to two hands that may present an expected profit or a reduced loss, depending on what the dealer is showing.[14] A split pair of eights is expected to win against dealer upcards of 2 through 7 and to lose less against dealer upcards of 8 through ace.[15] If a player hits on a pair of eights, he is expected to lose $52 for a $100 bet. If the player splits the eights, he is expected to lose only $43 for a $100 bet.[16]
History[edit]
Blackjack's 'Four Horsemen' (Roger Baldwin, Wilbert Cantey, Herbert Maisel and James McDermott), using adding machines, determined that splitting eights was less costly than playing the pair of eights as a 16.[17] They were part of a 1950s group that discovered that strategy could reduce the house edge to almost zero in blackjack.[18] Now a typical strategy involves the following sequence of playing decisions: one decides whether to surrender, whether to split, whether to double down, and whether to hit or stand.[19]
One of the earliest proponents of the strategy of splitting eights is Ed Thorp, who developed the strategy on an IBM 704 as part of an overall blackjack strategic theory published in Beat the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of Twenty-One in 1962.[18][20][21] Thorp was the originator of the card counting system for blackjack.[18]
Notes[edit]
Blackjack 2 Player
- ^Gros, p. 60
- ^ abcdeOrtiz, p. 56
- ^Gros, p. 48
- ^ abGros, p. 51
- ^Jensen, pp. 22–23
- ^ abcSchneider, p. 47
- ^Gros, p. 52
- ^ abSchneider, p. 49
- ^Gros, p. 50
- ^ abcdefJensen, p. 53
- ^ abJensen, p. 56
- ^ abHagen and Wiess, pp. 68
- ^Schneider, p. 48
- ^Hagen and Wiess, pp. 66–67
- ^Scoblete, Frank. 'Why Splitting Eights At Blackjack Is An Iron Clad Rule'. Golden Touch Craps. Retrieved 24 July 2009.
- ^Tamburin, Henry (25 October 1999). 'Splitting Aces and Eights'. Casino city Times. Retrieved 24 July 2009.
- ^Snyder, Arnold (2005). 'Blackjack Basic Strategy: Aces and Eights'. Player Magazine (republished).
- ^ abcGros, p. 44
- ^Jensen, p. 51
- ^Thorpe, Beat the Dealer as cited in Snyder, Arnold citation below
- ^Levinger, Jeff (10 February 1961). 'Thorpe, 704 Beat Blackjack'(PDF). The Tech. Retrieved 30 May 2009.
References[edit]
Blackjack Hit 12 Against 2
- Dunki-Jacobs, Frits. Betting on Blackjack: A non-counter’s Breakthrough Guide to Making Profits at the Tables. Adams Media. pp. 28–34. ISBN1-58062-951-2.
- Gros, Roger. The Winner's Guide To Casino Gambling. Carlton Books Limited. pp. 44–69. ISBN1-85868-899-X.
- Hagen, Tom & Sonia Weiss (2005). The Everything Blackjack Strategy Book: Surefire ways to beat the house every time. Adams Media. pp. 66–68. ISBN1-59337-306-6.
- Jensen, Marten (2003). Beat Multiple Deck Blackjack. Cardoza Publishing. pp. 22–23, 51–56. ISBN1-58042-069-9.
- Ortiz, Darwin. Casino Gambling For The Clueless. Carol Publishing Group. pp. 55–59. ISBN0-8184-0609-7.
- Schneider, Meg Elaine. The Everything Casino Gambling Book (2nd ed.). Adams Media. pp. 47–49. ISBN1-59337-125-X.
- Thorp, Ed (1966). Beat the Dealer: A Winning Strategy for the Game of Twenty-One. Vintage. ISBN0-394-70310-3.
2 1 2 Blackjack Betting
